A recent Pinnacle article
set me thinking about what advice I would pass on to punters wanting to flatten the curve (apologies for the steal). How can punters move their negative expectancy towards a positive one even if they do not quite get there. I have said many times that punters losing less means punters are likely to stay in the game as the prospect of winning seems closer and god knows Racing needs more punters to stay in the game at the moment.
Here are my tips, I will add to them as time go’s by
1. Log/retrieve your bets so you know exactly how much you are losing in terms of ROI%. Very easy to do these days with online accounts allowing you to download account details. Betfair is wonderful for this giving you full account bet details.
2. From 1 look at how much randomly you would lose betting at your average bet price and hence how steep is the incline ahead. If your average bet price means you would randomly betting be losing say 12% and you are losing 12% then you are doing no better than a pin sticker.
3. Interrogate past results using software or online resources and get a feel for one or two ideas that will flatten the slope. In other words if you tend to lose say 7% how can I apply basic rules and get that down to 5% or maybe less. You can also use bet analysis software that will analyse your own bets and allow you to potentially highlight strength and weakness. Maybe you do well in sprints but poorly in other races. Be careful of sample sizes though unless you can articulate a reason for this eg I analyse draws and perhaps this gives me a push in the right direction for sprints. Example of software below
4. Always decide what you are going to bet at the beginning of the day, once you have decided stick with it. Sounds inflexible but it will be outweighed by the removal of loss chasing. Place your bets in the morning and then walk.
5. ALWAYS take the best available price and use Betfair to gauge whether to take it now or wait. How does this work, well if you fancy X and the best bookmaker prices is 5/1 but on Betfair its 5.5/1 then wait or if that’s not possible due to time take BFSP. If on the other hand its 5.0/1 or less then take the price if you can. If time does not permit this kind of work then just take Betfair SP (see previous article)
6. Track your price taken to closing price ie what price did I take and what was the Betfair SP. If initially you are not winning but you are significantly beating the closing price then keep going sit back and wait with the small crumb of comfort that thought you are not yet winning you will be eventually.
7. Do not be afraid of lower class races, see blog following this one
Of course point 6 comes with the caveat that pretty quickly you will be banned by bookmakers so working to Betfair will be the only real option. Do not be put off by this you can still be profitable to Betfair.
Have a tip of your own, add a comment below
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