I ran a Twitter poll today asking people whether they think punters faced with low grade handicaps and high grade handicaps should avoid low grade races or embrace them. There are still plenty of people who believe the media numpties who spew out the daily nonsense to either mask their lack of betting nouse or perhaps encourage you to lose more by advising you that low grade handicaps are unreliable betting mediums. ( Currently on Twitter 70% think low grade is OK and 30% think it should be avoided)
I considered chucking some data at you to try and persuade you that low grade races are perfectly good betting mediums and that you should not steer away from them, but I decided instead to take a different tack as statistical analysis is not every bodies cup of tea.
No doubt you have heard of Hugh Taylor. He is a rare breed in that he is a media tipster who actually publishes all his past tips and results. Most do not because they would no doubt be so god awful that people would start to question how they stay in work. Hugh is pretty good to say the least as his record shows but you would think that if low grade races are unreliable then Hugh would steer clear of them. Of course this is difficult because there are plenty of days when all Hugh faces is low grade racing. One would think therefore that being forced to consider these money sponging class of races Hugh would struggle to make them pay or at least perform with inferior results.
Below is his tip record by class for years I have at hand (not cherry picked) showing low class as class 5 and above and high class class 4 and below.
2017 Class 5+ Bets 246 PL 95.95 ROI 39%
2017 Class 4- Bets 272 PL 97.3 ROI 35.79
2016 Class 5+ Bets 241 PL 45.74 ROI 18.97%
2016 Class 4- Bets 286 PL 128.4 ROI 44.91
2015 Class 5+ Bets 231 PL 147.35 ROI 63.7%
2015 Class 4- Bets 290 PL 22.25 ROI 7.67
2014 Class 5+ Bets 234 PL 47 ROI 20.08%
2014 Class 4- Bets 283 PL 132.5 ROI 46.8%
Class 5+ Bets 952 PL 336.04 ROI +35.2%
Class 4- Bets 1131 PL 380.7 ROI +33.6%
Virtually no difference, in fact low class is slightly but not significantly ahead. OK so do you still think low class racing is unworthy and unreliable ?