This years KG seems to pivot around whether Cyrname will be as effective at 24f as he is at 20f and of course by effective we mean more than just will he be as good performance wise because as punters we are not in the game of being right about how good a horse is we are in the game of being right about how wrong other punters are. Cryname could be equally effective at 24f as 20f but still be a good lay or a good bet at the price. This is the conundrum that most punters starting out fail to appreciate and usually never aquire an understanding of.
In analysing Cryname as a focus horse for this race we could examine how horses with his type of essential credentials have faired betting wise in the past. AE values provide a vehicle for doing this, they give a picture of not simply how many horse have won when moving from 20f to 24f after winning at 20f but a picture of how much you would have won or lost if you had backed them.
Looking first at horse’s moving up from 20f to a 24f Chase race of any type we have an AE value of 1.01. this means to bookmaker SP prices after deducting over-round you would have won 1p in every pound bet. Obviously you cannot bet without over-round so that actual profit would disappear but we are using these AEs as a measure of under or over bet by the public.
Now if we look at horse’s that have simply won last time running over 24f regardless of the distance of their last race we get an AE of 0.98. Together these two AE values do not look like a case for opposing Cryname. However when we venture into checking those horse that ran over 24f after previously winning at 20f we get a damaging AE of 0.86. This is a pretty b=negative AE value and suggests that the combination of trying a new distance from their last race plus being bet by the public for winning last time out sends these horses off at too short a price.
Finally I checked whether non handicaps were any better. Perhaps handicap wins force a trainer to try a new distance in response to an anchoring weight increase. The AE for non handicaps came in at 0.88.
This prompts me to lay Cryname particularly at the 2.6 currently available.
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