You could not escape Pinatubo’s stunning win in Ireland recently when he demolished the opposition. His leg speed made Too Dran Hot look like a candidate for next years Cheltenham Gold Cup. Nor could you perhaps ignore the avalanche of bookmaker offers for next year. I think he is 5/4 for the Guineas as I write. A recent article was posted on Twitter citing the dangers and gloom around these 2yo hotpots. For sure the Tromos, Arazi and Celtic Swings of the past are fresh still in our minds but is this because we harbour gloom more than we do success. When was the last time anyone cited the great 2yo’s that went on to succeed as 3yos. Also what do we mean by succeed, well as a punter we want to know if they are a trap or a decent betting proposition.
I had a quick look back at 2yos that had logged an official rating greater than 115. Seemed like a starting point given that Too Darn Hot logged 116. Although my data go’s back to 1999 I suspect the ratings may have changed in scale along the way as I have no qualifiers prior to 2008. The total number of bets on these horses as 3yos amounted to 50 with PL of +29.6 to Bookmaker SP. Pretty impressive especially as the Betfair SP would be a good deal better. The AE value by the way was 1.46
Here are this years bets (English races only)
11/05/2019 Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) 1 2
16/05/2019 Too Darn Hot 2 1
01/06/2019 Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) 1 6.5
18/06/2019 Too Darn Hot 3 2
21/06/2019 Pretty Pollyanna 7 10
13/07/2019 Pretty Pollyanna 4 8
27/07/2019 Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) 10 7
31/07/2019 Too Darn Hot 1 1
24/08/2019 Pretty Pollyanna 2 0.9
What if we extend the range a little to say greater than 110.
314 bets PL +0.41 AE = 1.34
Again not too bad and clearly shorter priced horses did well.
Finally 2yo’s that were rated above 100 produced a further reduction in overall performance.
2364 bets PL -691.27 AE = 1.04
It would appear from the above that great 2yo records are not something to be feared and somehow we have to get over Tromos even if you did back him for the Guineas