Some time ago I wrote an article which described why all punters would be better off betting on Betfair than wasting their time betting with bookmakers. You can re read the article here https://markatsmartersig.wordpress.com/2018/10/05/educating-trevor-2/
What surprised me about this article is that no one challenged me with the argument that my data was not based on intelligent selections but merely looking at all horses. To rectify this and hopefully convince a few more people that Betfair is the only game in town I decided to take a look at how our newspaper tipsters had faired with their naps during 2019 based on best early morning price at 10am versus Betfair SP. The bookmakers used for checking best 10am price were as follows
Bet365,Sky Bet,Ladbrokes,William Hill,Marathon Bet,Betfair Sportsbook,Paddy Power,Unibet,Coral,Betfred,Boylesports,Totesport,Black Type,Betstars,Betway,BetBright,10Bet,Sportingbet,188Bet,888sport,Bet Victor,Sportpesa,Spreadex
As you can see I have been very generous in the sense that no punter is going to have accounts open whilst taking top prices amongst all those bookmakers, nevertheless lets see how our paper pundits faired against BFSP. As usual for simplicity I have considered only races where there were no NR’s between 10am and the off.
Backing all selections to best AM price produced the following results across all tipster naps.
5444 Bets PL -299.67 pts ROI -5.5%
Now backing the same selections to BFSP we have
5444 bets PL -277.35 pts ROI -5.09$ after commission deducted.
Even with the world of bookmakers at their disposal our newspaper tipsters could not beat BFSP and in the long run neither will you because even if you are sharper than our tipsters your accounts will be closed down quicker than a 5f sprint on fast ground at Epsom.
If there is interest I will later drill down into individual tipsters to see if there are any patterns. One area of interest may be the profile of the tipster, perhaps lower profile tipsters working for the Carlisle Evening Gazzette do better than Racing Post ratings. For example Paul Kealy has posted a profit 36.45 to BFSP after commission