I rarely tip on this blog but if you scroll back you see that my record is pretty decent. I have also mentioned that I think punters would do better if they did nothing else but formulate a perspective on certain races and use this each year. This was the reason I backed Too Darn Hot in the Sussex at 10/1 and it is the reason I wish to talk about the coming Arc in Paris.
The Arc in my opinion is, ground allowing, a 12f race for 10f/12f horses in contrast to 12f/14f horses of which there have been many top class fancied runners in the past. I have had many winning bets in this race based on this supposition. By contrast I abandoned the Ledger many years ago due to my lack of perspective.
This year I am going to commit Racing heresy by suggesting that Enable is just too darn low in the betting. She has won two Arcs from pole stall and track positions but more importantly I agree with the handicapper. She is scrambling home lately from horses that in recent pantheon of racing I would not consider to be the highest of class.
If I am right who is over priced for this race. Japan is the second favourite and although I have been wondering when Japan (the country) would eventually win the Arc, I am not convinced that its namesake will do that this year. The final sections of the International seem to back up the eye in that Japan was scrambling home ahead of a whole group of horses. You could argue that Mark Johnsons horse might have won if he had got a better run. Sure Japan will benefit form going back to 12f but I would want more tactical speed from my Arc selection, and its this tactical 10f speed where we find my selection.
Scottass has been pretty much overlooked due to his form being abroad and the lack of runs from the placed horses but the clock paints a picture. The overall time of the race was very good, over 5 secs below standard and his final 400 metres was 23.09 secs. What does this mean, well on the same day Pellegrine won a G3 in a slower overall time with a final 300m of 19.2 secs compared to a final 300m for Sottass of 17.72 sec. On similar ground Study of Man clocked 24.7 for his final 400m in last years French Derby. Finally again on similar ground but at Longchamp, who’s terrain in the straight looked so similar to Chantilly that I had to double check they did not run Enables second Arc at Chantilly, Enable clocked 23.9 for the final 400 metres.
Dont misunderstand, Enable is an obvious player. her final 400 on GS at the Chantilly Arc in 2017 clocked an impressive 24.2 but none of this seems warrant 4/5 with bookmakers and 8/1 Sottsass. She is good but she is no Treve.
I have backed him EW at 8/1 on one of my rare excursions to a bookmaker where once again I found that £200 EW at 8/1 is far too big a bet for the big High st bookmakers. Once again making a mockery of the TV lies about monster laid bets.
Good luck with whatever you fancy I hope at least you are well drawn