Final stage of our analysis and we need to bring together all the individual AE values for each horse on each of the four features, draw, jockey, pace and last race distance. This analysis has really been a about illustrating a method of evaluating horses. The fact that it happens to be the Derby is not particularly relevant but given it is a high profile race it probably helps to sell the lesson and of course we are all more likely to be familiar with the horses in question and the race.

To get a final AE value for each horse we need to multiply the individual AE values for each horse. In other words we need to multiply a horses

pace AE x Jockey AE x Draw AE x Last race distance AE

With these small samples some AE’s can come out zero dues to no wins which would of course render a horses final AE as zero, a rather unrealistic value. There are only one or two of these so I have used an AE of 0.8 knowing they do not artificially elevate a horse into a high ranking position.

Horse Draw Jock LastDist Pace Total
Sir Dragonet 1.02 0.72 2.04 1.69 2.531
Madhmoon 1.5 1.15 1.28 0.89 1.965
Anthony Van Dyk 1.5 0.72 2.04 0.89 1.960
Broome 1.5 1.15 0.64 1.69 1.865
Norway 1.02 0.72 2.04 0.89 1.333
Hiroshima 0.32 1.15 2.04 1.69 1.268
Bangkok 1.02 1.15 0.64 1.69 1.268
Humanitarian 1.5 1.15 0.64 0.8 0.883
Japan 1.02 0.72 0.64 1.69 0.794
Circus Maximus 1.5 0.72 0.64 0.89 0.615
Line of Duty 0.32 1.15 0.64 1.69 0.398
Telecaster 0.32 1.15 0.64 0.89 0.209
Sovereign 0.32 0.72 0.64 0.89 0.131

The interesting rating is that of Telecaster who looks to have a lot to do from his draw. If he gets lit up as he has in his last two runs he will find the draw and that hill quite taxing.

Let me know who you fancy in the comments section.