The derby mount merry go round will take shape over these final days before the race. What will Ryan Moore ride, does he have full choice over the O’brien entries after all he was not riding the current derby fav’ last time out. A couple of features I am going to look at in this post are the draw and how important is it for the jockey to have ridden the horse last time it ran, after all one would think familiarity would be an advantage.
Here is the profit and loss once again to a 1pt stake before commission at Betfair SP.
Same Jockey 51 bets PL -8.01
Different Jockey 54 Bets PL + 13.91
It certainly does not seem to matter if the jockey has not ridden the horse on its last run, if anything form a betting perspective it may be an advantage.
So what about the draw over 12f at Epsom. The dominant factor here appears to be the scramble for the inside on the first bend which comes pretty quickly after the start. The fact that a second bend in the opposite direction hits the runners after a further couple of furlongs does not seem to be the major factor when analysing the draw. For the analysis I split the draw into lower third, mid third and upper third of the draw based on number of runners.
Low draw Bets = 43 PL = -39.1
Mid draw Bets = 46 PL = -20.6
High draw Bets = 43 PL = +52.3
Not surprisingly with a high draw being advantageous for that scramble to the first bend, high draws are not fully compensated for by the market. A notorious low draw failure last year being Saxon Warrior. Interestingly hold up horses as previously discussed still improve from having a high draw. No doubt they are able to take a comfortable mid pack position from the draw whilst hold ups drawn low have no option than to surrender large amounts of ground as they are forced to drop in to the last third of the field.
The question now is what to do with this information. I will come to this in the final Derby blog before race day. As always leave a comment or click on the rate button below.