In the first article on this topic I looked at a possible method for evaluating jockey merit than the good old seat of the pants media mush which I have to admit I too am guilty of. We trust our eyes when evaluating jockeys and this is a very dangerous things to do. Some time ago I wrote a piece on Jamie Spencer which suggested that he was not a poor jockey on hold up horses as many people’s eyes would lead them to believe. Only a couple of days ago one pundit was eulogizing about another wonderfully paced and timed run by James Doyle but is our view of Jockeys accurate and if it is not can a more accurate basis be found and perhaps even promote a profitable way forward. No promises here but crunching data can sometimes be fruitful in the area under investigation and other times it provides insights in other unexpected areas.
A number of questions were posed at the end of the last article and in this piece I want to address one of them first, namely is this approach of attaching a number to jockeys based on their inefficient run rate a useful metric or not. The first thing I did was to take a look at those top jockeys and see if the ‘efficient’ ones had produced a lower betting loss than the less ‘efficient’ jockeys going forward into 2019. I did not update the figures as I progressed into 2019 but this could be an option. For now I was taking the snapshot from 2017/18 as per article 1 and then testing in 2019.
De Sousa and Crowley were two ‘efficient’ jockeys and I tested them first. Between them there had been to BFSP before commission
38 Bets PL +1.38 roi +3.6% VARPL +5.23 VarROI +33.1%
If you are unfamiliar with VarPL this simply means putting a stake on to win 1 point or £1 if you like. For example to win 1 pt at 2/1 you stake 0.5 pts.
Two ‘inefficient’ jockeys James Doyle and Andrea Atzeni
Bets 79 PL -9.37 roi -11.8% VarPL +5.53 VarROI +17.8
The problem here is very small samples and certainly not enough data to get excited about. The next step I decided upon was to check the profit and loss of betting all jockeys in the sample after splitting them into two groups. The first efficient group all had inefficient run percentages that were below the rolling average. If I am losing you here reread the first article. The second inefficient group had inefficient run percentages that were above the rolling average.. The base PL results were as follows
Bets 4039 PL -315.48 roi -7.8%
Bets 2980 PL -152.87 roi -5.12%
At first sight this looks a little disappointing, I was hoping inefficient jockeys would lose more in the pound. When I checked the more reliable variable returns however things looked a little different.
Bets 4039 VarPL +29.9 Varroi +4.53%
Bets 2980 VarPL -28.4 Varroi -5.6%
Things now look a little more predictive. This data is at an early stage and will need tracking into 2019. Hopefully I will report back later in the year.
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