Today’s Southwell card has been decimated by the Arena trainers and owners ban over decreased prize money. The result is very small fields and further evidence of the farcical state of UK racing. Meanwhile the BHA are working on more important matters like whether 9yo’s can be made to win more races and benefit the bookmakers who will welcome the increased randomness. Ironic when one considers that they are the root cause of this prize money problem in the UK.
Small fields however do allow a speedy experiment in sectional regression to analyse the chances of todays runners in the 5.10 6f race. Taking the final 2f times and the 6f to 2f times of all class 6 races over 6f on standard going at Southwell allows one to play around with regression on the latter to predict the former. In other words if a horse runs the first 4f in x seconds what would you expect it to run the final 2f if given all previous placed performances run under these conditions. Using this formula we can look at the four runners last runs over Southwell 6f which all happen to be class 6 on standard going. The 3yo runner does not have a run and so will be hard to assess here and Pearl Noirs run go’s back some two years having been campaigned almost exclusively over 5f. Never the less lets take a look at what the numbers say.
Jazz Legend ran last time out 49.9 and 26.9 but his predicted final call was 26.2
Televoi ran 51.5 and 25.7 off a predicted 25.6
Jazz ran in the same race as above with 50.6 and 26.4 off a predicted 25.9
So far Televoi looks the better shot with a much closer to predicted final call
Pearl Noir ran 2 years ago 50.4 and 26.2 off a predicted 26.0
Pearl Noir would perhaps be the bigger danger to Televoi with the 3yo being hard to assess having never run at Southwell
Jazz Legend 2.42
Pearl Noir 19.0