At the age of 14 the quote ‘I know what I like and I like what I know’ did not really resonate with me quite as the Music teacher hoped even though I understood what he was getting at as he tried to give us a reason why we should open our minds to the possibility of enjoying Beethoven. I have since thought that he missed a trick and should have made his appeal through the soundtrack to A Clockwork Orange which was sweeping through my 4th form at
that particular time. I think then he would have had our attention, particularly if he had turned up in white’s, a bowler, boots and single false eyelash.
We are all still guilty at various times of liking what we know and for some that means not being able to embrace the better winning prospects that exist on Betfair but for Betfarians it may be simply not checking out the other exchanges
that are perhaps making in roads into Betfair’s dominance.
One particular area I have been meaning to look at is the variance between Betfair SP and Betdaq’s XSP. This could be quite useful if you are a users of Betfair SP and are concerned about canibalising your price. If Betdaq offer comparable prices then splitting between the two may be an option in order to spread the erosion.
I decided to take a look at relative returns for the first week of January 2019 for UK racing. My data produced 1583 individual horse returns.
First looking at the average price across all horses showed the following
Average all prices Betfair SP 65.0
Average all prices Betdaq SP 66.91
Clear win for Betdaq over Betfair here, but its winners that really count.
Average price where finpos = 1 Betfair 7.76
Average prices where finpos = 1 Betdaq 7.94
Betdaq again comes out ahead and furthermore the average winning prices were better for Betdaq on individual days
In order to enlarge the place sample I looked at all horse that finished in the first 3
Average price where finpos less than 4 Betfair 12.18
Average price where finpos less than 4 Betdaq 12.87
Finally the number of occurances when each return beat the other
Count Betfair greater than Betdaq 732
Count Betdaq greater than Betfair 824
Across all bands Betdaq was superior to Betfair SP during the first week of January. This I have to admit surprised me a little, especially the cross blanket domination. Betting at exchange SP is often used as a fall back against missing a price and perhaps both exchanges should be considered.
Beethoven anyone ?, prefer Rachmaninov myself.