One of the most repeated myths, especially on TV, is that punters would be best served betting on higher class races as lower class races are unreliable due to the erratic nature of lower class animals or perhaps the shear level playing field of modest form. Why this has come about I have no idea as I have long since smelt a rat about this piece of advice. Whether its bookmaker propoganda, as I am pretty sure they want you to bet on high class races, is anyone’s guess. The real question are higher class horses more reliable from a punting point of view ?.
For the purpose of this article I will take a punter view of reliable, namely that punters tend to overbet the last run and usually get swept up with placed horse last time out in preference to those with a more chequered last run figure. If we take a look at the profit and loss to backing to Betfair SP runners who placed first second or third last time out we would expect, if the message is correct, to find less loss in higher class races. Indeed the lower class figures should show that we lose more following ‘form’ in lower class races. Is this the case for the last 5 years Handicaps on the flat?
Class 2 6969 bets PL -346.77 ROI -4.97%
Class 3 6264 bets PL -401.87 ROI -6.41%
Class 4 12768 Bets PL -530.69 ROI -4.15%
Class 5 15475 Bets PL -353.48 ROI -2.28%
Class 6 13994 Bets PL -459.2 ROI -3.28%
The least loss occurred in class 5 and class 6 the very races the media is telling you to avoid and very races bookmakers do not really want you to bet in. Ask yourself this why do some bookmakers state in their new max liability rules that they will take a bet but only in class 4 and above. Enjoy Kempton tonight, I like Hombre Casado and Cool Strutter in the last two handicaps.