The three year old Burn Some Dust has just done exactly that and won the 2.40 at Newcastle for Brian Ellison. The most interesting thing about this horses previous few runs is that he was taking a hike up in trip by a good four furlongs and he had run as a three year old so its not simply a case of 2yo race distances anchoring his previous profile. This set me wondering which trainers have what probably requires a fair bit of bare faced cheek to run a horse four furlongs short of his best before winning. The first name that probably pops into your head is Sir Mark Prescott but he is not top of this both in terms of numbers and percentage of overall handicap runners.

Here are the top 20 in terms of pure runner numbers.

Trainer Hcpruns +4f %ofhcps PLtoBFSP ROI%
M Johnston 6967 161 2.310894216 245.7136 152.6171429
B Ellison 2969 147 4.951162007 2.9844 2.030204082
A W Carroll 3590 105 2.924791086 -71.8638 -68.44171429
R A Fahey 7764 100 1.287995878 -35.3568 -35.3568
Ian Williams 2161 80 3.70198982 147.8438 184.80475
P A Kirby 927 71 7.659115426 0.9834 1.385070423
D O’Meara 3676 70 1.904243743 -20.5762 -29.39457143
M Appleby 3231 68 2.104611575 11.433 16.81323529
H Morrison 1847 65 3.519220357 -2.9436 -4.528615385
T D Easterby 4839 63 1.301921885 -43.859 -69.61746032
M W Easterby 3187 61 1.91402573 5.7404 9.410491803
J S Goldie 3035 60 1.97693575 -35.3804 -58.96733333
G L Moore 2444 60 2.454991817 -47.4062 -79.01033333
G A Swinbank 1623 58 3.573629082 24.246 41.80344828
P D Evans 4278 56 1.309022908 -21.4922 -38.37892857
S Mark Prescott 1200 56 4.666666667 -12.2876 -21.94214286
M R Channon 3267 48 1.469237833 3.1878 6.64125
K Dalgleish 2562 46 1.795472287 -5.1716 -11.2426087
D M Simcock 1752 45 2.568493151 -5.1018 -11.33733333
A M Balding 3031 44 1.451666117 39.255 89.21590909

In terms of percentage of hcp runners and taking only trainers who have had at least 20 runners go up in distance by four furlongs, the trainer with the highest percentage is Tim Vaughan at 9.25% but he clocks a 2.62pt loss for those 21 distance movers.

Looking for profit amongst the data however will take a bit more digging than the time since the race finished an hour ago if not for any other reason than the PL column is propped up quite a bit by Mark Johnson who’s horses seem to be trying a little bit harder when they go up four furlongs.