Hugh Taylor had a nice winner yesterday in Buccaneers Vault at 9/1 EP. Here is what he had to say about the horse.

“Dropped in from his wide draw at York, he was last turning for home, but made smooth headway towards the far rail in the straight. The race unfolded up the centre of the track, however, and although he pulled well clear of those who raced close to him, he was unable to land a blow.That was enough to suggest he’s in good form, and the return to 6f will suit”

Looking at the race on video his account is pretty much accurate and was there for all to see but not everybody saw it. Hugh has admitted that the cornerstone of his methods is looking for horses that ran better than the general public might interpret and therefore go off at bigger odds next time than they should. An approach everyone should try to emulate, but not everyone has the time of day to study videos of all yesterdays racing and make notes/alerts.

One way of short cutting the practice is to specialise in a particular distance. If you have a favoured area, say sprints then obviously choose that area. If you have another angle like pace bias over 8f then choose 8f races. This is an approach being used in an experiment currently being conducted by a group.

There may however be an additional filter which can be adopted to reduce the workload without reducing the accuracy and that is previous run field size. below is a list of the AE values for runners in handicaps having run in a handicap previously. The AE’s are constructed by number of race runners in previous race and the displayed values are for at least 100 sample races.

4 ran 1.01981618
5 ran 1.012712218
6 ran 0.954235887
7 ran 1.013166246
8 ran 0.944577488
9 ran 1.025891188
10 ran 1.01479714
11 ran 1.009386069
12 ran 0.999026866
13 ran 1.001438238
14 ran 1.029168591
15 ran 1.041550091
16 ran 1.016391039
17 ran 1.034566678
18 ran 0.971012869
19 ran 1.1053776
20 ran 1.093988019

What the graph shows is that runners LTO in 6 runner races have next time out an AE of just over 0.94. Anything above 1.0 is a sign that the public underbetting and that the horses are going off bigger than they should. The data is from 2009 to 2013 and shows that if we specialise in our video watching on runners of 14 or more we will not compromise our note taking value, perhaps even improve it, but we will cut down the number of races we have to study. There is a lot more going off in a large field as Mr Taylor discovered to his benefit.

Not everyone likes big fields to bet in but you should be studying them after the race.