Sectional data provided by TPDZone is now available on ATR and it is providing a rich vein of analysis and fascination. Simon Rowlands is the guru on this topic but after some conversations with him it struck me that there is another way to look at the data which may prove interesting. The ATR approach is to look at sectional times, in particular the final section, as a ratio of the rest of the race. This proves a valuable insight into how energy was used through a race and and perhaps who won/lost because of or in spite of energy use. The problem is that it does not readily allow you to answer questions like who will lead between horse A who led at Wolves last time and horse B who led at Lingfield. The topology of the courses are so different that raw times run over the first part would be meaningless but times relative to actual PARS for that section and course might show that one has a better chance.
In addition assessing the class of horses is difficult via ATR, at a glance you cannot see whether horse A has just run in a class 6 but has posted a class 4 or 5 run.
To address this I compiled PAR times for each
I then looked at a recent performance and tweeted that the winner compared to these PARS looked about class 4, the grade it was running in. My next step was to see if I could find a runner who had posted something above class for these pars. I did not have to look far. The first race I looked at over 7f at Wolves showed the class 6 runners leading through the first fraction in a slightly sub class 4 speed. Now given that the first 3 through this gate also finished in the first 3 suggested they may well be above class 6. Only one has run since winning ‘easily’ in class 6. The other two are yet to run. Comment below if you would like to know their names. Sorry to be a tease but I do get fed up with writing and getting little or no feedback.