Its Guineas week and many a pundit is pouring over the trials run over the last few weeks but are they very helpful from a betting perspective. I decided to take a look at the pound in your pocket effect as I was particularly taken by Saxon Warrior ahead of Saturdays race. He held off a good hold up horse when running prominently in a fast run Racing Post trophy at the back end of last season, but if he runs as promised then he will be another OBrien runner without a prep race.
An AE value is a measure of how under or over bet a factor is. If we took 10 white faced horse where 5 went off at 2.0 and 5 went off at 3.0 BFSP we would expect according to the market to see 4.16666 winners, thats

5 X (1 / 2.0) + 5 X (1 / 3.0)

If say 6 of them won then they are doing better than the market suggests, whereas if say only 2 won then they are under performing in relation to the market.

AE Values above 1.0 (Actual win divided by expected wins) suggest that the market is under-betting them and we want to be with them in the future.

Taking horses that have run in the Guineas since 2009 and dividing them into prep runs for those having run within 55 days and anything above being a no trial runner we have the following AE values

Prep runs AE = 0.75
No prep AE = 1.26

Horse without a prep run have been significantly under bet in previous Guineas

Interestingly pretty much the exact opposite is the case for fillies in the 1,000 guineas. Perhaps trainers are reluctant to push fillies at home so early.

I am not a big fan of race trending but could not resist a quick look at the draw across bot Guineas and the AE’s for high, low and middle came out at

High 1.04
Mid 0.68
Low 1.37

Horse that are of interest this year are

Saxon Warrior Won
Elarqam
Ghaiyyath
Headway
Barraquero
Tip Tie Win
Murello

Short list for the 1k guineas tweeted out before the race

Altyn Orda
Anna Nerium
Billesdon Brook Won BFSP 168.1
Dans Dream
I can Fly
Sarrochi
Sizzling
Soliloquy

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