Today’s Lingfield Winter Derby poses more unknowns than known’s in terms of stride length and frequency. Many horses have not yet registered any data which means we are guessing in terms of size, class etc. Is there anything we can gleam from the data so far, well lets take a look.
One possible measure of class is stride length X Srides per second. This number does not tell us how long they maintained this number but it still may be an indicator of class. If it does then over time we should see some nice averages emerge over various official class levels.
At the moment the average ‘power stride’, for want of a better term, for the conditions of today’s race at Lingfield are 59.18. Class 2 has an average of 59.8 but this unexpected larger number may simply be due to sample sizes so far.
How do the horse today measure up?. The Obrien favourite has no data and is taking a hike in class on official figures. If Ryan Moore was not on board I am guessing that he would not be favourite. The interesting horse is Utmost, a market mover into second place at around 9/2. He has a power stride of 58.4 when winning at Lingfield which does not look good enough but his previous defeat comes out at 60.1. If this was the other way round I might be more bullish but for me he looks vulnerable as I suspect the winner of this race will be better than the average of 59.18 or even 59.8. Utmost also did his figures from two races that were overall Even to Slow. My feelings at this stage is this would elevate the so called power stride rating.
The other interesting readings are for Mr Owen who comes in a 57.7 which is above the class 2 (no class 1’s yet at Wolves) average of 57.4 but this was also done off a slow pace which may well have boosted his power stride number.
Master the World does not look likely to figure with a power stride of 58.19 well below class 1 or 2 for Lingfield. Again his figure was from an Even to Slow race.
Suggestions, well not with confidence but maybe a chance on Khalidi EW