I hope by now you have realized that backing horses based on the fact that the trainer or jockey likes it is a long term futile exercise. However are there occasions when it is worth listening to the post or pre race mutterings of trainers ?. This week at Goodwood D K Ivory was interviewed before a big 2yo race in which he unusually had a fancied runner. He told the interviewer that they are known for not rushing their 2yo’s and as a consequence the listener could well draw the conclusion that by and large his 2yo’s should be ignored, particularly first time out in Maidens. I decided to look at this and found evidence to the contrary.
Since 2009 if you had backed all Dean Ivory’s 2yo’s in Maidens you would have had 60 bets and a profit of +41 pts to BSP. First thing that springs to mind is was there a freak SP in there that inflated the profit?. Well taking only those going off at less the 8/1 bookie SP still produced a profit of +11 pts to BSP from 10 bets.
So lets dig a bit further and examine run number in maidens. First run in a Maiden at any price produced 23 bets and a profit of 57 pts. Clearly Dean Ivory had been a trainer worth waiting for when it comes to debut winners as when they come along they can be bank swelling.
By the way Dean Ivory also does well in Nursery Hcps which you would expect if he is one for not rushing his 2yo’s. You would presume that if he does not rush them then a runner in a 2yo Hcp is reasonably primed.
What can we learn from this ?. Take what trainers say with a pinch of salt. In their defence they may well be talking about strike rate and of course we are not interested in strike rate we are seeking profit. That’s a lesson that is not a long term futile exercise.