Its been about a week since I introduced the SF Pars on the web site and I thought I would give you a little update on their progress. I must warn that this is a very inconclusive update as it is far too early for any real assessment.

Backing all the horses in the sample to BFSP without the reduction of commission produced

Bets 544 PL -60.84 Variable stakes 79.8 PL +0.33

Now taking all horses where the last SF par difference was greater than zero

Bets 67 PL -0.62 Vstakes 14.5 VPL -0.23

Taking the last SF difference to be less than zero and the best of the last 6 to be greater than zero

Bets 119 PL -18.7 Vstakes 20.5 VPL +2.9

Taking the last sf difference to be less than -9 and the best of last 6 to be greater than 9

Bets 23 PL + 5.55 Vstakes 3.72 VPL + 1.29

As I said far too early for conclusions but from this small sample the lurkers I alluded to in the previous blog post have performed the best.

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Update up to 25/5/15

Now taking all horses where the last SF par difference was greater than zero

Bets 274 PL +42.8 Vstakes 61.1 VPL +5.97

Taking the last SF difference to be less than zero and the best of the last 6 to be greater than zero

Bets 561 PL -176.65 Vstakes 78.2 VPL -0.8

Taking the last sf difference to be less than -9 and the best of last 6 to be greater than 9

Bets 159 PL -32.31 Vstakes 21.3 VPL 3.97

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Update to 1/6/2015

Quick update on progress and pointers on their use.

Now taking all horses where the last SF par difference was greater than zero

Bets 411 PL +103.87 Vstakes 88.1 VPL +12.02

Taking the last SF difference to be less than zero and the best of the last 6 to be greater than zero

Bets 855 PL -182 Vstakes 113 VPL -4.33

Taking the last sf difference to be less than -9 and the best of last 6 to be greater than 9

Bets 217 PL -48 Vstakes 27 VPL 1.58

The point I want to make about their potential use is that at the moment the pars do not differentiate between AW and Turf. Research shows that their is improvement if the pars are seperated, so until I implement this it may be best to focus on the turf races only. All the results above are for any races that have shown on the web site.

Is anyone out there following this, please leave a comment if you are.

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