As of today I have put on the web site daily speed figure PAR differences. Essentially these are an account in all of the days handicaps on the flat of how each horses speed figure in its last race compared to the average winning speed figure for todays race defined by class (winning purse) and race distance combined. There is also a figure denoting the difference of the horses best, last of 6, speed figures and the days race par.

Looking at back data did suggest an advantageous movement in blind losses when using the figures. Taking horses that went off at less than 8/1 but had a last SF that was better than the pending race PAR lost only 9.2p in the pound. Those with a last SF less than the pending race PAR lost you in the region of 11.8p. These were all to bookmaker SP. I have not looked at the relationship yet of the best of last 6 figure. Perhaps those that have a better than par from the last 6 but not from the last figure might be the lurkers.

Here is an example of the 3.25 at Goodwood

15:25,Deeds Not Words,-34.7,-17.7
15:25,Doctor Parkes,-0.7,5.3
15:25,Fairway To Heaven,-28.7,-0.7
15:25,Flashy Queen,-33.7,-3.7
15:25,Long Awaited,-11.7,-5.7
15:25,Perfect Muse,-10.7,-0.7

From this we can see that Borderlesscot has a last sf that is 38.7 point behind pAR but from his last 6 runs he would be a contender with a SF of +11.3 above par. The solid figures are from Humidor where both his last and past 6 figs are above par. An interesting contender would be Extrasolar who has back form in the shape of a SF that is 3.3 above par for the class and distance even if his/her last run is poor relative to class.