I have a friend who simply cannot shake off a horse once it has done him a favour. Some years ago he was supporter of Florida Pearl and it seemed like everytime he ran my friend would be backing him. More recently this occurred with Cirrus D Anglais. These two won their fair share of races and no doubt this is why I got to hear about them. I never had any news about some dog he had supported for the umpteenth time and that had let him down again. This begs the question of whether we are all victims to some degree with repetative bet syndrome. If your betting is mainly automated as mine is then there is no danger of this but when it comes to more personally analysed bets we can be in danger of supporting old friends. It is difficult to backtrack but it would be an interesting stat if anyone has past records to check how fresh bets perform against repeat bets.
Today I find myself in a related position. On my sectionals I have Rock on Ruby as a lay which makes the other two at the head of the market as potential attractive bets. I personally feel that there is little between Jezki and Arctic Fire which leads me to believe that the 10/3 on Jezki (7/2 in places) is very good value. Jezki has a proven record of coming out of tough races and repeating his run. He has also won over the trip although perhaps in a weaker race. If he had not made a complete horlicks of the last in the Champion then there probably would have been little between him and Arctic Fire once again and with the market assuming that a finisher will stay better than a weakener we have attractive odds available. Wait a minute a finisher perhaps not being a better bet over further than a weakener ?. Yes this can be the case especially when the pace style of the race has disadvantaged one over the other.