Rakaan scooted home in the 3.0 at Lingfield yesterday. He was running off a mark of 65 having won off 80 in a better class race this time last year at Lingfield. This obviously did not go unnoticed as he was well supported, but do horses well in according to their official marks offer any value ?. I checked through handicap races from 1999 to 2006 for turf flat handicaps. I used a ‘good run’ rather than simply winning as a mark indicator and looked at backing those that fell below this mark in future races and were going off at below 8/1. The results did not offer any incentive with 11,529 bets being produced for a loss of 1439.27 ROI -12.4%, pretty much what you would expect throwing a dart at a dartboard.
There could however be some mileage in getting to know your trainers. During this period the trainers with the best profits given decent sample size of bets were

R Fahey
JJ Quinn
K Ryan
J Akehurst
B W Hills
J G Given

Now the question is would they be profitable with their well in horses during the hold out period of 2007 and 2008. The profit for these trainers came in at

R Fahey +13.75
JJ Quinn – 9.15
K Ryan -0.5
J Akehurst -11
B W Hills +14.5
J G Given +6

Total profit to bookie sp +15.6pts. It could well be that knowing your trainers in this area is the key or at least a helping hand to avoiding those trainers who could not win with a handicap certainty (yes there are a few)