The new surface at Wolverhampton has been in place since August 2014 and although it is still a bit early to be drawing any conclusions I thought I would take a look at the pace credentials of the track. As usual I examine the track from the perspective of pre race pace figures not actual race pace performances. In this case I have taken the average of a horses last 3 runs to produce its pace figure.
First I looked at the Wolverhampton pace performance for horses with a Smartersig web site pace figure > 1.4 from 2009 up to August 2014. Wolverhampton produced the following figures to Betfair minus 5% commission.
Bets 14181 Wins 1804 SR% 12.7% PL -686 ROI% -4.8% VPL -80
Now if I examine the results from August the 10th onwards for Wolve’s we have the following.
Bets 1189 Wins 134 SR% 11.2% PL -73.3 ROI% -6.1% VPL -11.9
At the moment from an insufficient sample size, Wolves appears to be less favourable to pace than the old surface. The Strike rate has dropped from 12.7% to 11.2% and the loss in the pound has also increased.
If you are a pace dude then Wolve’s may be heading towards relegation. If you would like me to keep you posted on this data as more unfolds then add your comments below.