I have been conducting some research into speed rating pars this week. Speed pars are the average speed rating achieved by winners for the variety of class of races. In my research I used race value combined with race distance to categorize races. Having constructed a set of speed pars I then forward tested a set of years comparing past race winners and their speed figure for the winning race with the par value for the race they had just won. This was done only for handicaps by the way on the flat. The results did illustrate that those horses with a last time speed figure that was above par for the last race did much better next time out than winning horses who ran below the par for their last race class.
This surprised me a little as I expected, as does Len Ragozin of the Sheets fame in America, to find that these groups of horses running above par would have a fair share of bouncers amongst them to increase the loss in the pound. This did not seem to be the case. More research is needed on this and I may well report back if any of you show any interest. In the meantime here are some of today’s LTO winners from Ayr with an assessment of their chances based on pars
4.25 Ayr (76) Jacob Black Last race par 64.8 LTO speed fig 57 All time best (75)
4.25 Ayr (76) Top of the Glas Last race par 101 LTO speed fig 58 (76)
5.0 Ayr (76.4) Khelman Last race par 67.9 LTO speed fig 51 (72)
5.0 Ayr (76.4) Athletic Last race par 70.02 LTO speed fig 70 (72)
5.35 Ayr (63.5) Forced Family Fun Run Last race Par 52.1 LTO speed fig 11 (105)
5.35 Ayr (63.5) Pressure Point Last race par 60.1 LTO speed fig 64 (73)
Looking at the above Pressure Point strikes me as the most interesting bet with first four looking like possible lays.
Post race footnote – In all 3 of the above races the winners could be found by applying a slightly different set of criteria namely that the last time out SF recorded must be better than the par figure for the coming race. Interrogation of the test data also shows this to be a valid approach.