Today is Leger day and I have concerns about a horse I like a lot and have blogged about previously, Kingston Hill. He is certainly the best horse in this race but I am not convinced this is the race they should be targeting. In my opinion Roger Varian should be aiming at the Arc and the Champion stakes where he is likely to get the ground and trip that will suit him. I hope he gets away with it today but I would not pay to find out.
I really wanted to touch upon a previous post I wrote a month or two ago about newspaper tipsters and are they worth the paper they print on. I mentioned previously that perhaps newspaper tipsters that feel compelled to nap in big races because they feel that is what readers want or perhaps because editors order them to, are in my opinion race writers to strike off your to read list. If I was inclined to read the opinions (as it happens I am not) of a writer I would be far more interested in the guys who are napping in the 7.30 at Wolverhampton today rather than the Leger. Perhaps it is a better indicator that they are free thinkers with the licence to tip where they want.
I decided to do a quick check today and see if there is any meat to this theory. Looking through the Doncaster card we have 26 newspaper tipsters who are not napping in the Leger and their average loss for the season on their naps comes out at -13.2 pts. By contrast the seven pundits who have napped in the Ledger have an average seasonal loss of -29.45 pts on their naps. The free thinkers are well in front of the yes men. If you are interested here is a list of the free thinkers
Racing & Football Outlook
Napped in the Portland
Who is your favourite writer on betting ?. The Smartersig web site has a list of users favourite books which you can check out and even vote on.