When I was a very young man, new to the game I thought I detected a certain propensity for Peter O Sullevan to tip winners in his Daily Express column from the Dunlop yard. No doubt this was an transient illusion but I rote to him and asked why he did not advise more than 1 point win when he was confident with a tip. He kindly wrote back and said that if he tipped more than one point it would encourage punters to put more money on. Now at the time I could not quite work that out although now I realise that Peter’s newspaper tips quite possibly made a long term loss and he was in fact doing the reader a favour by keeping it simple. These days I take very little notice of tipsters but it is still useful to know who’s opinion has some kind of worth and who’s you can confidently oppose in the long run. As I have said many times before most of them are jounalists, you should not mix that up with successful punter.
Today is the day of the King George stakes at Ascot over 12f. Big races like this can give out a few clues as to who is a tipping numpty and who at least has an ability to think laterally and perhaps make a few quid long term. A quick look at the following set of nap selections via oddchecker paints an interesting picture.
Telescope Daily Express The Scout 0 6 -27.65 5/2
Magician Sheffield Star Fortunatus 0 2 -18.51 5/1
Telescope Daily Record Garry Owen 2 0 -18.46 5/2
Eagle Top Daily Star Sunday Moorestyle 0 2 -9.26 4/1
Taghrooda Liverpool Echo Chris Wright 1 0 -2.67 11/4
Mukhadram The Irish Field Rory Delargy 0 1 31.48 14/1
As you can see from the above the seasonal PL for the scout is -27.65. Notice the almost linear relationship between tipping the bleeding obvious and seasonal loss. Telescope has a perfectly decent chance in today’s race, perhaps the most likely winner but does anyone feel that 5/2 represents an error on the part of the bookmakers ?. Personally I would look at a table like this and immediately put a mental line through the scout and Gary Owen as a source of reading material for future races. As I said I read very few write up’s from journo’s but if its your thing then do a little research and at least choose one’s that have a decent track record. Perhaps even look for writers that are napping on such a day as today, on a minor race. This shows they at least have a free hand in their tipping.