I am not sure that there is a bet in today’s Derby at the available odds but one thing is for sure, with no regard for available odds plenty of pundits will be advising you what to bet on. No one will be suggesting that this is just another race, in fact you could probably use such occasions to draw accurate lines through pundits you should avoid when they nap in such a race. My guess is most of them are succumbing either to editor pressure or their own ego and finding the winner of the Derby.
Having said that, there is something interesting and quite striking about today’s contestants or at least one or two of them. I am no fan of the trainer of Australia, his training ability is probably equaled only by his ability to disguise a complete and utter sales sound byte about one of his stable inmates. Whether it be a 10f horse that is contemplating a tilt at the July Cup or vice versa, the one definite aspect of these statements is that they can never be disproved as they are unlikely to be tested. In the case of Australia the statements are somewhat different. Obrien feels that this may well be the best he has trained. This is not a statement he can get away with 12 months down the line. It will look either hollow or completely vindicated and for this reason my ears did for once sit up and take notice. I also feel that there is a touch of what I call the Aouita factor about both Australia and Kingston Hill, namely that both should improve for a step up in trip and yet they have achieved over a shorter trip something that most Derby winners could only dream about over 1m. I am usually suspicious about short priced Guinea runners in Derby’s but these two do not strike as the usual doubtful staying milers. If it wasn’t the Derby ask yourself, would you really want to get involved. Probably not at 7/4 and 7/1 but equally it serves as warning against seeking supposed value at bigger odds as surely you would like some negatives against the front two in the market and with Guineas runners I usually need a big stamina doubt. Kingston Hill two weeks ago was a good bet at 16/1, Australia has never been a good bet since his Guineas run but I for one would not be surprised to see him clean up some of the bullshit.