There has been some discussion on the SmarterSig forum this week (You can join via https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/SmarterSig/info?showJoinPopup=true) on the merits of tracking horses running off an official rating below the average winning official rating of the offspring of its sire. These average winning ratings are for handicaps on the flat. It was thought that perhaps particularly for under exposed animals eg 3yos with few runs in handicaps, the discrepancy in a horse’s allocated mark and its sire’s average winning mark of offspring may indicate an underestimated horse.
For example in the 5.55 at Chepstow we have a 3yo hcp with the Fav Gimme Five on a rating of 58, his sire Champs Elyesee has an average winning offspring OR of 79 and hence could be considered well in. I decided to take a more detailed look at this angle and see if it has any legs.
First of all I ran a check on all flat handicaps from 2008 to 2012 using 2008 as a data feed year before checking from 2009 onwards. I made no restrictions on age or price of qualifiers, simply checking for any horse with an OR less than its sire’s average winning OR. The results were as follows
Bets 42,526 PL to SP – 13019 ROI – 30.6%
Now checking those horses with an OR greater than its sire’s
Bets 37683 PL -7915 ROI – 21%
This was rather disappointing as the difference shown would have been expected to lie the other way round. I changed the odds area to restrict to those qualifying at less than 8/1
Bets 13179 PL -1173 ROI -8.9%
Bets 18029 PL -1687 ROI -9.36%
At the front of the market we appear to have a slight edge in the direction we would expect. I then restricted this front of market category to 3yo bets only.
Bets 3878 PL -284 ROI -7.33%
Bets 5845 PL -482 ROI -8.25%
An improvement here in the differential with 3yo’s having an OR below their sires average winning OR for progeny, losing only 7.33%
You can check the average sire winning OR on the SmarterSig web site via the sire analyser